Are we seeing a political relignment towards the centre?

Political realignments are a rare occurrence in most party systems. Political scientists in the USA generally divide US political history into six distinct periods, with the sixth party system beginning in the 1970s and 1980s and coinciding with significant cultural developments and the shifting voter bases of both the Democratic and Republican parties. It could be argued that the UK is currently seeing a similar realignment with demographic changes impacting on the support of the Conservative and Labour parties. It is also possible that we are seeing a realignment in Northern Irish politics, with the rise of Alliance and the cross-community centre ground.

If I was to look at the political history of Northern Ireland, I would divide it into three distinct periods. The first was from 1921 to 1972, and was defined by the dominance of the UUP (previously known as OUP) in every election, with the Nationalist Party and Northern Ireland Labour Party (NILP) confined to permanent opposition. The second was from 1972 to 1998, in which unionism became fragmented between the UUP and the smaller and more radical DUP, the SDLP replaced the Nationalist Party as the main representative of nationalism, facing electoral competition from Sinn Féin in the 1980s and 1990s, and Alliance succeeding the NILP as the main party of the small centre ground. From 1998 to 2017, the third period has seen the DUP and Sinn Féin become Northern Ireland’s two main parties, surpassing the UUP and SDLP respectively, while Alliance has consolidated its position and made modest gains. However, since 2017 there has been an unprecedented increase in support for parties who do not identify as unionist or nationalist.

The most recent Assembly election in March 2017 marked the beginning of this realignment. Although that election was defined by the unexpectedly close result between the DUP and Sinn Féin, the strong Alliance vote was overlooked by many. Alliance had their best result since 1987, defending their eight seats despite an overall reduction in the Assembly size, and coming very close to gaining another two in North Belfast and South Down. Alliance also polled very well in rural constituencies away from greater Belfast for the first time, with over 1,000 first preference votes in every constituency west of the Bann. The Green Party also had a good result and held their two seats against a close challenge from the UUP in South Belfast.

However, it was the three elections in 2019 which truly marked this realignment towards the centre. In the 2019 local election Alliance had its best result since 1977, gaining 21 council seats (32 to 53) and gaining seats in places like Derry and Omagh for the first time in decades. The Green Party also doubled their number of councillors, from four to eight, and People Before Profit (PBP) won four additional seats alongside their one in 2014 for a total of five, although the Green and People Before Profit gains were regionally focused on Belfast, North Down, Castlereagh and Derry, rather than across Northern Ireland as was the case with Alliance. Alliance finished fifth in the local election with 11.5% of the first preference vote, but it did significantly better in the European election in which Naomi Long was elected to the European Parliament (18.5%) and the general election when Stephen Farry was elected MP for North Down (16.8%). In both elections Alliance was third place in terms of votes, ahead of both the UUP and SDLP for the first time.

What factors explain this realignment towards the centre? The immediate causes at the time of the 2019 elections appear to be opposition to Brexit and the absence of the devolved institutions since 2017. Alliance was clearly able to benefit from this, as an anti- Brexit party which had been providing solutions to the deadlock for years, such as reform of the petition of concern. But they also apply to the SDLP, who also had excellent Westminster results in 2019 despite disappointing local and European results. Which brings me to what I believe is the long-term reconfiguration of Northern Ireland politics.

The Alliance surge and success of other non-aligned and cross-community parties is primarily a result of the growth of the constitutionally non-aligned across Northern Ireland. Recent surveys and polls indicate that a substantial proportion of the population do not see themselves as unionist or nationalist, and this has been growing over the last twenty years. This could be seen as the outworking of the peace process and the Good Friday Agreement, as many voters who have grown up with peace are now at voting age and in many cases are less likely to identify with one side of ‘the divide’ as a result. The mistake made by many was to expect this realignment back in 1998, with the UUP and SDLP consolidating their position as the two main parties through their co-operation in the Executive. Of course, the opposite happened in the 2003 Assembly election, the DUP and Sinn Féin emerged as the largest parties and Alliance only narrowly defended their six seats. It is only after twenty years we are seeing this centre ground emerging through explicitly cross-community parties like Alliance, rather than the moderate parties of unionism and nationalism (the UUP and SDLP respectively).

Another explanation for the ongoing realignment is the increasing prominence of social and economic issues in the Northern Irish political landscape. Alliance is a liberal party of the political centre with progressive views on contemporary debates around LGBT+ rights, climate change and internationalism. This would appeal to many newer voters, including many from a unionist background who might be dissatisfied with the DUP and UUP stances on these issues. Alliance’s recent successes outside of greater Belfast also suggests that the various stereotypes often applied to the party (Belfast only, too middle class, soft unionist etc) are increasingly contested . It is also notable that other parties have had success without aligning themselves with either unionism or nationalism, for example the Green Party has had success recently through their environmental policies and social liberalism on issues like abortion, and People Before Profit (despite being pro-United Ireland they designate as ‘socialist’ rather than ‘nationalist’ in the Assembly) has gained support through their resolute opposition to austerity and welfare reform.

It could be argued that this realignment towards the centre ground has happened despite the Good Friday Agreement and not because of it. This is because the Good Friday Agreement is based on the explicit recognition of unionism and nationalism, and can only work when parties from those two blocs work together. I would argue that because of this, the Good Friday Agreement was always intended to accommodate sectarian divisions in our society, rather than trying to overcome them. A good example of this is that if Alliance was to become the second largest party, they would not be entitled to appoint a deputy First Minister because unionism and nationalism would almost certainly remain the two largest designations, therefore the DUP and Sinn Féin would continue to hold the top positions even if one of them had less seats than Alliance. This makes the success of cross-community parties even more impressive, but it could perhaps limit their opportunities at Assembly level compared to local elections, which has happened in the past.

So what does this mean for the future? Northern Ireland is scheduled to have three elections over the next three years, Assembly in 2022, local councils in 2023 and Westminster in 2024. Although there is still a year to go until May 2022, opinion polls and the 2019 election cycle suggests that Alliance is on course to become the third largest party in the Assembly for the first time, ahead of the UUP and SDLP, and it could even be possible to become the second largest party based on recent polls but a lot less likely. Both the Greens and People Before Profit have at least one possibility of gaining another Assembly seat in 2022. Similarly, these parties will all look towards possible gains at council level, with Alliance hoping to become the third largest party for the first time since 1973.  By 2024, Alliance will be looking to defend their North Down Westminster seat while also looking toward gains in East Belfast, East Antrim, Strangford and Lagan Valley where they finished second in 2019. It is only by then that we will know for sure if there has been a long term realignment towards the centre ground and how this will change our politics. In particular, if there is now a substantial third bloc which does not identify as unionist or nationalist, then the Assembly as an institution would need to be amended to acknowledge that, for example by abolishing community designations and replacing cross-community voting with a qualified majority system to ensure that all MLAs are included.