Have Sinn Fein and the DUP diverged paths?
We traditionally associate Sinn Fein and the DUP as being at opposite ends of the Northern Irish political spectrum but, as is often the case, their polarity suggests a kinship. That kinship can be seen in the process of each party's rise to dominance in Stormont, as both appear to have taken advantage of a populist surge which supplanted two traditional parties in the UUP and SDLP. That rise had multiple components but it is undeniably that a populist source was integral. That same populism has become more common in the west in the last 10 years than it was 20 years ago when both parties established themselves as the premier parties in the assembly.
Each party had leaders pulled from a non-traditional political background in Paisley, Adams and McGuinness. They both appealed to a radicalised ideological position which neither the UUP or SDLP were able to offer. They both defined their politics around ideological nationalism (whether it be British nationalism or Irish nationalism), so much so that each party would often disregard economic ramifications in the face of politicised nationalist issues. Finally, they both happily alienated their detractors, disregarded the centre ground and kept to their own voterbases (with each party partially also able to supplant the UUP and SDLP through active and genuine grassroots interactions). In these actions and ideas, the parties both defined themselves as total opposites whilst following the exact same path.
That path no longer looks the same for Sinn Fein and the DUP. Both have had to forge a new path within their positions as established political parties who hold/held a strong majority within their respective communities. However, both populist parties have had to deal with being established political parties differently and recent events have made this divergence more obvious. The DUP had to change tact due to the predicted success of a more extreme populist unionist party, Jim Alister’s TUV who hopes that history repeats itself (this time as comedy rather than tragedy). The DUP are also dealing with a revitalised UUP who have found a new, separate identity closer to the middle ground which has allowed them to shed the DUP-lite moniker. In short, the DUP is ideologically strangled by competing forms of Unionism and their only response has been to double down on their own populism (with DUP members having attended multiple Protocol rallies which bear some resemblance to the Charlottesville marches during Trump’s Presidency). They wish to re-take any ground which the TUV may have stolen away and, at the same time, assume that the UUP’s new image will not encroach upon too much of the moderate Unionist vote who the party have rarely had to appeal to directly anyway.
Jeffrey Donaldson (Middle) attending a Protocol Protest
Sinn Fein have found an alternate route to walk, highlighted in their recent election campaign. If I were to identify their new strategy cynically I would call it ‘republicanism with a human face’. I would first point to their election broadcast which attempted to highlight John Finucane’s varied background (son of an East Belfast, middle class mother and a west Belfast, working class father) while also highlighting a slightly more positive message than Sinn Fein would have promoted in previous elections. Secondly, I would look at the recent interview with UTV where Michelle O’Neill joins Tracey Magee in a leisurely gym session where sporadic questions are asked in between moments of casual conversation. Within that interview, O’Neill specifies that the 2022 Assembly Election is about economic matters which take precedence over a border poll. It feels like an active attempt to soften their image in an election where the DUP are doubling down on their populism. It appears to be a turning point where Sinn Fein are actively attempting to become the true broadchurch of nationalism with a transfer friendly face.
Michelle O’Neill (Left) giving an interview to UTV before the election
The difficulty with both parties deviating from their shared path is that we still cannot tell if this switch is cosmetic (a shallow change in time for the election) or if it is true to both party’s changing course. Is it realistic to assume that the DUP can be any less co-operative in Stormont than they have already been and can we realistically expect Sinn Fein to become anymore co-operative when their previous track record of collapsing the assembly still hangs over them?
