West Tyrone
2022 Election Analysis
West Tyrone has developed a number of interesting plot lines over the last term in the assembly. The area has seen a number of controversial candidate changes and shifting dynamics which makes it an interesting one to keep an eye on even if major change is unlikely this election.
2017 Election Winners
1 - Michaela Boyle (Sinn Fein)
2 - Thomas Buchanan (DUP)
3 - Declan McAleer (Sinn Fein)
4 - Daniel McCrossan (SDLP)
5 - Barry McElduff (Sinn Fein)
Sinn Fein is the obvious place to start. West Tyrone is one of the party's three seater constituencies with only one of their candidates having to rely on transfers to get elected in 2017. The party's strength in the area may be partially in question as only one of the three candidates elected in 2017 will be running in 2022 (Declan McAleer).
Barry McElduff (before he was suspended from the party) became an MP in 2018 meaning Catherine Kelly had to be co-opted into the Assembly to replace him. Following this, Catherine Kelly had to resign in 2020 in relation to mis-use of the small business grant during the pandemic. Nicola Brogan was then co-opted into the Assembly in 2020 and will be running for election for the first time in 2022.
The third seat for Sinn Fein is somewhat less controversial with Michaela Boyle resigning to become Mayor of Derry City and Strabane District Council in 2019, leading to Maoliosa McHugh being co-opted into the assembly.
The question is whether Sinn Fein can maintain the same level of support they saw in 2017 with all the changes that have occurred since the previous election. West Tyrone may end up being a good representation of whether Sinn Fein voters concentrate on the brand of Sinn Fein (and the chance of seeing a Nationalist First Minister) or the individuals who make up the party. Those who adhere to the brand would probably vote for Sinn Fein regardless while those more interested in the individual MLAs may well be disillusioned by the positional shuffling that has taken place in the constituency over the last couple of years.
The DUP will feel relatively safe in this area. Their candidate, Thomas Buchanan received 9,064 first preference votes in 2017, the most any candidate received in the first round in West Tyrone. It would be unlikely that the area sees a substantial enough shift to the TUV to see Buchanan miss out this election and the UUP do not appear to pose much of a threat either.
The reason the UUP are not putting up much of a fight in West Tyrone is due to the candidature of Ian Marshall. Marshall was the first Unionist to be appointed in the Seanad and is a former President of the Ulster Farmers Union. Usually, these points might be viewed as positives for most UUP members but this does not apply to Armagh resident, Ian Marshall. Coming from Armagh is the main reason that the local UUP association of West Tyrone has rejected his placement as candidate (with some relevant members going as far to leave the party over his selection). The UUP were in a decent position in 2017, collecting 6,274.54 votes by the end of the count (finishing runner up) but the quarrel over Marshall’s candidacy may well have sunk any hope of the UUP building further support in the region, with it being difficult to even find volunteers from the area to help the campaign.
Daniel McCrossan will be hoping to retain his seat comfortably, especially with a strong showing in the 2019 Westminster election (collecting 7,330 votes). While we cannot rely heavily on Westminster Election results, it would suggest a relatively safe position for the SDLP in the area despite McCrossan not being the most active Assembly member.
For Alliance, this constituency will be about progression. Stephen Donnelly ran in 2017 and only received 1,252 votes but 2019 received 3,979 votes. That is a substantial growth in the space of two years and would suggest potential growth for Alliance moving forward. That would also place West Tyrone as the most likely constituency for Alliance to see a gain west of the Bann (which many in the party would see as progress from the usual stereotype the party is pinned with). West Tyrone is also an area where Alliance can make further inroads in the nationalist community even if those inroads may be limited to high preference voting. That would further expand their possible voter base in the future and shed another stereotype the party has often been associated with.
The Sinn Fein Dilemma in this constituency poses a wider question of our election as a whole. How much do these local plot lines affect elections which we usually categorise as the electoral manifestation of ideological battles. The logical conclusion from polling and pundit analysis would be that Sinn Fein have never looked stronger and should be able to return similar gains even if they see a slightly less mobilised response than the 2017. However, the local events which have played out in the area mean that Sinn Fein are in a state of uncertainty surrounding their three candidates' ease of re-election. Similarly, the UUP have been the benefactor of a new manager bounce but their fate in West Tyrone has been altered by local squabbles and poor candidate management. It suggests that, at times, our eyes are set too high in the arena of political thought rather than the ground level of local politics.
