Belfast North
2022 Election Analysis
Belfast North is shaping up to be one of the more interesting constituencies in this upcoming election. A constituency that over the last few years has become increasingly heated in mobilising the Nationalist and Unionist communities to come out and vote. You just need to look at the 2019 General Election (GE) battle between the DUP’s Nigel Dodds and Sinn Féin’s John Finucane along with the subsequent rhetoric to understand that this constituency is contested on tight tribal lines. We’ll take a look at the main candidates below.
2017 Election Winners
1 - Paula Bradley (DUP)
2 - William Humphrey (DUP)
3 - Gerry Kelly (Sinn Fein)
4 - Nichola Mallon (SDLP)
5 - Caral Ni Chuilin (Sinn Fein)
The DUP will be running two new candidates, Antrim & Newtownabbey council leader Phillip Brett and former Belfast Lord Mayor (and current Cllr) Brian Kingston. The DUP will be disappointed to not see Deputy Leader Paula Bradley running again, however Brett and Kingston are two high calibre candidates who bring a decent amount of political experience. They will face stiff competition from both the TUV and the UUP, both having potential to take 1st preference votes away from the largest unionist party (the UUP more than the TUV in this area). We believe that the party has a good chance of returning at least 1 seat with the 2nd being a 3 way split between the unionist parties.
The UUP, rejecting any unionist pacts this election, are running former Progressive Unionist Party (PUP) councillor Julie-Ann Corr Johnston. Corr Johnston is well connected to the constituency and has proven to be a popular individual. In the 2017 election, she received over 2,000 1st preference votes which was no small feat for political minnows like the PUP. Running on behalf of the much larger UUP, Corr Johnston will be feeling much more confident about her chances of being elected. We believe she has the potential to cause an upset with transfers from other unionist parties being the key to her success.
Next up is the Alliance Patry’s Councillor for Castle DEA, Nuala McAllister, who will be looking to prove that the Alliance surge is real. She received over 4,800 first preference votes in the GE 2019 but North Belfast has seen tensions rising over the last few years with Protocol protests and bonfire rows setting the backdrop for life in the constituency. Alliance will be hoping their cross community message of hope and reconciliation will offer a credible alternative. Going by past election results, Nuala is facing an uphill battle with an outside chance of getting elected.
The SDLP will be looking to hold their seat with Infrastructure Minister and Stormont party leader, Nichola Mallon, looking to secure another term. Mallon had a strong term as Minister but constituency rumours suggest she was too focused on the ministry position and didn’t spend enough time on the ground. While not on the strongest footing, we doubt Mrs Mallon won't get re-elected. She received a significant amount of 1st preference votes in the last Assembly election and, with the SDLP being modestly transfer friendly, we think she has a good chance of returning to the hill.
Sinn Fein will be attempting to maintain their current 2 seats with incumbents Gerry Kelly and Carál Ni Chuilín both seeking re-election. Sinn Féin are in a good position in North Belfast with a strong core voter base. After the recent success of electing John Finucane MP in 2019, the party will be hoping to mobilise that support again. After a steady few years for Sinn Féin, they will be at least hoping to increase their vote share. We think both candidates are likely to be re-elected.
In conclusion North Belfast is shaping up to be another Unionist-Nationalist slog. Unionist voters will have a diverse choice of candidates and the potential to cause a DUP upset with both the TUV and UUP offering alternatives for the unionist message.
Alliance have the potential to return Nuala McAllister and with the party’s vote share increasing in the last few elections we wouldn’t rule it out.
We expect no changes among the nationalist parties but both will be wanting to increase their vote share to send out a message that their ideals and hard work is making a difference on the ground with constituents.
Keep an eye out for Julie Ann Corr-Johnston and Nuala McAllister potentially causing an upset, also its worth monitoring how many votes the TUV will receive.
