Belfast South
2022 Election Analysis
As seen from the 2017 election results, Belfast South is one of, if not, the most diverse constituency across NI. Having elected 5 candidates from 5 different parties it really is anybody's game. Alliance and the SDLP will be looking to build upon their established success within the constituency running 2 candidates each.
2017 Winners
1 - Claire Bailey (Green Party)
2 - Paula Bradshaw (Alliance)
3 - Clare Hanna (SDLP)
4 - Máirtín Ó Muilleoir (Sinn Fein)
5 - Chris Stalford (DUP)
The SDLP will be running Matthew O’Toole, who was co-opted in late December 2019 to replace Claire Hanna after she was elected to Westminster, and Elsie Traynor. Both candidates have never run for election before and thus remain unproven to electoral success even though O’Toole has gained a solid reputation in Stormont since his co-option. The SDLP can expect to comfortably return O’Toole going by past election results in the constituency.
Alliance are running Lord Mayor Kate Nicholl and incumbent MLA, Paula Bradshaw. Both candidates have a high profile within the area and the party will be hoping to return both with recent opinion polls suggesting the Alliance surge is real. While we expect the party to return one candidate to Stormont, two may be a tall order if the party doesn't balance the constituency split and explain to voters how to manage their transfers.
The DUP will be running former leader and Lagan Valley MLA, Edwin Poots. Poots was co-opted to the constituency after the untimely passing of Christopher Stalford in February. Going from 2017 election results, when the DUP ran two candidates, Poots should be feeling confident about his odds of being elected. However the last year has been nothing short of a disaster for the party due to multiple leadership changes, mixed messaging and party colleagues resigning, the Agriculture Minister may be feeling somewhat anxious about his chances. The party will also have to contend with the rising UUP, their candidate (Stephen McCarthy) is offering a centre-left, urban centric approach for Unionist leaning voters. Compare that to Poots’ right wing and rural sensibilities, Poots may find it difficult relating to latte drinking voters in leafy Stranmillis. One unionist candidate is likely for Belfast South. Poots, while facing an uphill battle compared to past DUP candidates in the constituency, is still the favourite.
Green Party leader, Clare Bailey, will be fighting to retain her seat having received slightly over 4000 first preference votes in the 2017 assembly election and heavily relying on transfers to get over the line. Bailey knows the challenge ahead of her. The challenge will be convincing voters why they should vote for a small party with little power within the assembly. However, both Bailey and her fellow North Down candidate, Rachel Woods, have their name on multiple pieces of legislation. Clare’s Private Members’ Bill on Climate Change caused the Department for Agriculture to alter and amend its Bill to pass through the assembly chamber. The Green Party leader will have no problem telling voters what a small party like hers can achieve. Her main competitors will be Alliance, the SDLP and (to a lesser extent) a more liberal UUP under Doug Beattie’s leadership.
Sinn Féin’s Deirdre Hargey will also be asking the electorate to renew her mandate at Stormont. The Minister for Communities has been heavily involved in dealing with the covid-19 crisis like the rest of her Executive colleagues and has brought forth multiple support measures for struggling families across the province. Sinn Féin will hope they have little to worry about regarding her seat. She may face some competition from the second all-island party, People Before Profit and their candidate Sipho Sibanda. However, we doubt that she is overly worried about her chances of getting re-elected.
The main battlegrounds for this constituency are Alliance getting a second seat, Clare Bailey returning her seat and which unionist party will get elected. This is definitely one of the constituencies to keep an eye on and will answer some lingering questions. Is the Alliance surge real? Does the electorate have faith in the Greens? Can a more liberal UUP attract transfers from across the political spectrum in this part of the world?
